Gold Prices In India 2010
2-year cycle of gold
2-year gold cycle
Editor: From: Click mineweb? 55 Date: 2009-01-07 12:02:47
A Mineweb reader has noticed a recent two-year cycle for the gold behavior prices, if continued is likely to provide some guidance on the movement of prices this year and next.
There seems to be a cycle of two years in the gold price that has been repeated since about 2004. Even years to follow a pattern, while the odd years followed by another pattern. Years pairs tend to get exaggerated extremes, either upward or downward on a percentage basis, while odd-numbered years are usually a bit quieter with less volatility.
For example, 2008 was very similar to 2006, with exaggerated highs reached in the spring of each year, and a late start of the traditional recovery of autumn-winter and spring, which began around October / November 06 and 08. In odd-numbered side of 2007 was very similar to 2005 with moderate gains made in May each year, and early onset of traditional recovery autumn-winter and spring, which began around August and September 05 and 07.
If this is truly a cycle of trust, we can expect 2009 to be very similar to 2005 and 2007 over the year. The first half of 2009 should see the gold follow the same pattern as the first half 2005 and 2007. In the spring of 05 and 07, gold keeps banging his head against the previous year, all secondary schools throughout the spring. More than once during spring 2007, gold topped at $ 690, comes with an accuracy of about 5% of the 2006 high of $ 735. Similarly, the spring 09 should see gold hitting your head against the 2008 high of $ 1,035, reaching 5% of the same or up to $ 985. That will be the high for the first half of 2009 in early May, although this is not discharge for the year 2009 as a whole.
Given the pattern of odd years, you can also expect the second half of 2009 to be very close to half later in 2005 and 2007. In 2005 and 2007, the pull-back summer were modest upswings and fall-winter-spring season began early, around August and September 05 and 07. The second half of 2009, then you should see a modest summer-time retreat of about 5% to 7% of its spring 09 high taking gold below $ 985 May 09 about $ 925 in August 09. However, 2009 will remain low for next January under $ 800 which is now only about a week or two away. Low January 2005 and January 2007 were also "the" or "near the bottom," annually for those years. So low, 2009 will be around $ 800 in January.
The high for 2009 will come in December. The upturn traditional autumn-winter and spring in 2009-10 will be much as it was in 2005-06 and 2007-08, with an early start. The year-end career for 09 commence around August or early September from about $ 925 in August / September 09 and to increase steadily until the end of 09 December. The annual maximum for 2005 and 2007 were achieved at or near December each year, each high was 20% higher than the average of their first halves. Thus the year 2009 will be beaten high on or near December and will be 20% higher than the average for the first half, putting the high of 2009 to about $ 1,150 in December.
The traditional autumn winter and spring recovery, however, will not end in 2009, will also extend into the spring of 2010 much as it did in the springs of 2006 and 2008. The high in the spring 2008 was 40% higher high in the spring of 2006. Therefore, the highest in the spring of 2010 will be approximately 40% higher than 2008's high of $ 1,035, putting Gold $ 1,450 in the spring of 2010. Then pull the summer of 2010 will be just as hard as were the decreases in summer of 2006 and 2008.
And so two-year cycle will continue, where even-numbered years a pattern of extremes, while odd-numbered years, are quieter, but with a kick up nice in the end. This two-year cycle with even-numbered years at the far side and odd numbers on the moderate side will continue until the boom of the goods is more (Eg around 2030, when the populations of China and India finally achieve an average of 75% of class), and until the U.S. dollar recovers in about of the same year (2030), when the world will be looking to the U.S. as a good place to buy because his then-to-be cheap dollar.
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