Gold Price Predictions December 2009
Why gold will not make new highs or lowest this year
Gold has had some dramatic movements in the past eighteen months and hope that there will be some equally dramatic movements in the future but not now.
While I recognize that gold is one of the few commodity markets that people are really passionate, the purpose of this article is not taking sides with either gold or errors of those who reject the argument that gold is forever. Rather, I want to talk about my interpretation of the market cycle.
After spot gold made a record high against the dollar on December 2 from $ 1226.37, gold has been in the mode of withdrawal. In recent months the gold has been in a broad trading range, seemingly unable to move one way or another. This process has created frustration of bulls and bears alike.
Here's the dirty little secret about the gold market. It can be a horrible investment and here's why:
Gold first began operating in the 80s while I was on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in Chicago as a member International Monetary Market (IMM), which was then a division of the CME now the CME Group. When gold was opened to the public was clamoring to buy on the market gold futures and guess who sold it to them? Thats right it was the pros, the guys who made their commercial life. As a result, gold hit a record high of about $ 850 an ounce, at the time and it took almost 25 years for gold to move in that level, at least in dollar terms. I do not know what is your line time, but 25 to 30 years is an awful long time to get back again.
So what is really happening in this market?
Everyone is aware of the problems in Europe with Greece, Portugal and a number of countries still has no name. We all know that the huge amount of money being printed, along with bank failures abroad contribute to the decrease of dollars of value. These developments, along with the actions of American governments also contribute to the devaluation of the dollar. The government says this is good for exports, but the bottom line is that the purchasing power of U.S. dollar continues to erode in world markets.
On the basis of the decline in world currency value against gold you may ask, why isn't gold trade 2,000 dollars or even $ 3,000 an ounce? What is wrong with this market? This is because a lot of what goes into the gold market is psychological and reacts to cyclical trends fueled by both economic and psychological factors.
So what does this have to do with the price of gold now? It has everything to do with the gold and nothing to do with gold.
Here is what I have seen in recent years in gold and appears to hold true. It's something you should pay care if you're interested in following big move in the gold market.
==> View The new video: "Gold is going higher?"
Before gold can go higher you need to create what I call an energy field. "The latest gold energy fields were between May 12, 2006 and September 20, 2007. This field of energy 17 months gold prices ranging from a wide range related operations for $ 730.08 (reverse) and $ 541.80 (Low). That field of energy produces enough energy to drive the new gold maximum of $ 1012.40 on March 17, 2008. This marked the first time exceeded gold, in dollar terms, the thresholds set in the 80 mentioned above.
The energy fields that I have observed for gold are taking place between 17 and 18 months. If the field of energy is maintained, then the December 3, 2009 high of $ 1226.37 must remain in place for quite some time. If the same holds true cycle, then the recent lows that we have seen, $ 1,050, you must also remain intact as they represent the low 15 to 16 months of the cycle.
With the lows in place the next question is when the next cycle is high in gold? Based on the current cycle, we can expect the next big gold high in 2011.
In short, I expect gold to be enclosed in a broad trading range for the next 12 months limited by the 09 diciembre 1226.37 maximum and minimum of $ 1,050.00. If the gold cycle is certainly hope that gold tops $ 1226.37 marker before April or May 2011.
Above his head, also for gold to make a cyclical high nature Quality in October or November 2011. It is impossible to predict the future with any degree of accuracy, but when you look at the cycles of gold this reads like a pretty good bet.
Whatever happens we expect gold are some great business opportunities for investors and traders should be able to take advantage.
==> Watch the new video: "Gold is going higher?"
As I always discuss in a negotiation should focus on gold or any other market with a good game plan and money management stops. The key to success in this decade will be a willingness of investors to move in and out of asset classes like gold and well diversified asset class more than one. Of That way you do not carry the bag for the next 25 years. Our global portfolio of commodities is a good example of this approach and I think will be a useful for investors and in the coming years.
About the Author
Rob Trader – Forex Expert
http://tradingtoollist.co.cc/
forex prediction – December 01, 2009, 05:10 PM trade of the day GBP
