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Gold, oil and gas – and what should be looking for

There was a time not long ago on this planet that obtaining information on gold and is fundamental, technical or quantitative is a daunting task. From a technical perspective of prices, to view a chart that had two choices. You can buy the Wall Street Journal, arrive at the price, and then draw (yes drawing) the price chart. Or you could mail for an annual subscription to one of the few companies that provide this service. Every Thursday or Friday to get their cards and then spend the weekend drawing bars on Thursday and Friday at his table and recalculate indicators for next week. His letters were just updated last Wednesday because it had to be printed and distributed to subscribers. Thus, for each follow-up action or commodity that you had to take a pencil or pen and update all the pages with the price bars from the previous days.

Now if you want basic information was not the Wall Street Journal, the Journal of Commerce, the annual reports of mining companies and the local library. I mention this not for a nostalgic look back but to make a point about how difficult and time consuming it was to get information basic beat on the Internet now a matter of moments.

We are clearly in the information age and the ease of "information at your fingertips" has generated a whole new bull market …. Technical analysis and information gathering.

Whatever your opinion, which may be of precious metals prices in the future, there is information out there to justify their "position." Myriad of information. This can be very dangerous for the individual investor. No matter how much we like to think that they are biased and opinionated, no way around it. It is inherent in our nature. The exceptions are rare. What usually happens is that they tend to gravitate toward information that fits our vision of the future market price direction. And this kind of information is especially powerful when we have a larger than it should be placed on a stock or commodity sector. And there are many voices (commentary) and then mixed with an incredible amount of supporting data. The investor is left with the problem of managing it all by itself or purchasing the services of a market expert to help with details at hand. And even there I saw a good analyst move from bullish to bearish and actually get paid cancellations. Unfortunately, this makes it very difficult for the analyst to remain impartial know if he or she becomes a bear, and subscriptions will be affected. Who do you know that it is a bull on gold or any other article For accumulating bearish data and adheres to an adviser who is an absolute bear?

Analysts and the proliferation of websites on the internet Are many.

In order to have successful consultant must have done something good / great call at some point in time, and have a good reputation. The most important thing is how the adviser makes when a change of trend is developing. A permanent bull analyst, who had services in the 90 people who have built a reputation for only be long. But what were the results in the last decade?

If you are a permanent bull advisers are gold subscription and websites that place in the total collapse of the mining equipment sector, where every week a new "support" area would be elected, a new channel drawn, and another cycle would be key due to the lower. One of the directors, to remain bullish during the 2008 crisis indicators would change depending on your perspective. Near the end was dumb moving averages lengthens the time it took to make the look of moving average as it had not been broken by the price of gold during the bull market. I think about minima counselor was using a 21 or 29 month moving average in his letters to long term. You look and would be a sign of serious exploitation and, of course, the last showed low resting right on the line too! The counselor to go through all the reasons was the low that was made, and if you got him / she may lose the train.

The reality was that most of its subscribers were in gold stocks and not metal. While gold was dropping only 30 percent of gold stocks collapsed. At its lows in 2008, a large number of investors had been beaten with a gun to the combined losses of 50% -70%. Those who use margin through the purchase of major producers and then his margin to buy young miners lost everything and disappeared even before the fall came through margin calls.

On the other side of the aisle are permanent bears. There are some very famous also been allowed to permanently takes over many years. There was a bear true, are justifiably asked for a meeting near the lows in gold. But in his opinion this was just a bear market rally in a continuing bear market. He called for a rally to 420 and was right on the money the whole way. Now we're talking about a guy who had been bearish since the peak in 1980 and the results speak for themselves. He had been right for 20 years in the long-term price of gold. And by the time we got to 420 in gold, gave its first signal sales. Then, a second signal to sell the 460. At that time, of course, he had built quite the case for why the gold was about to peak. How Gold is not doing well in a recession, and as the U.S. dollar was still in a bull market and was going through a correction. Well by the time we get to 480 if data is read as a record. He gave us the cycles of the millennium, the historical data of the last great depression, in reality a case that mining Homestake was only after the entire stock market fund.

Now the above examples are not extraordinary because each call could not be more wrong about market direction. The extraordinary thing is that they still have a huge following. Of course there must have been many that were (what else are you going to do once broke) but the process of erasing all sorts of client not achieved overnight. What happens is that once the "Clients" have committed themselves on the wrong side of the market, the adviser takes care of itself and its subscribers through the disappearance of their capital accounts, ensuring that each new high or each new fund "that's all." This is the background and the bull or bear market is about to resume.

And that brings us to today. We much information at our disposal. I remember reading that a study was conducted to determine whether the performance of today's investors has improved over the age of information. None.

Fortunately, there are counseling services that are not afraid to follow trends and are willing to be optimistic at times and also bearish when price dictates. Twenty years is a manifestation the exception rather than the rule. And even during bull markets, there are times you have to be pessimistic as most of bull markets suffer at some time or other setbacks as deep as 38% and 50% or 61%. The commodity table below speaks for itself. Be flexible in the world of commodities, because the top few were bearish.

Goldman Sacks Commodity Index

Recently, after a consolidation period of five months the commodity markets have returned to life as the price has broken the rise. Through the miracle of Asia have produced new demands for food and energy to the global network as an increase in wealth always brings a new demand.

With the attack fiat money and the press in the U.S. mass and loss of confidence in governments, the investment world also to gold and silver as a means to preserve their purchasing power. Taken in context, the rationale for food, energy, money and hard assets (except another crisis) for the rise. Table oil shows how close the table reflects commodity.

Crude oil commodity prices

1. That is our number one goal for our subscribers.

The recent breakdown of energy and raw materials is what we have been seeing and we the possibility of resumption of the trend has merit. Let's look at one in the market.

Gold Commodity Prices

Since the 2008 crisis there is only one major market that has broken to new highs and that is gold. Rejected a brutal metal over 20 years gold has quietly assembled over the decade 4X. More importantly, who have rallied to new highs after a long consolidation pattern 19 months. buds long term price so you can produce large price movements and prospects for gold, when viewed in relation to what is happening in the United States, suggests that the potential for an inflationary environment in the way is that it is difficult to dismiss.

All demand and supply prospects are very bullish for gold investment demand should increase from here, could (and already is) the overwhelming demand. With the advent of the ability of the ETF to buy commodities such as oil and gold has been a great success in providing vehicles for investors to participate in these products. But as we have seen, there are times that need to be out of business. If you think for a moment doubted know when it is important for success, but knowing when to leave is the KEY to the benefits in markets like this.

In recent years, it was easy. We enter and stay inside in the coming years will be much more difficult, and that volatility is the order of the day. oil drop from 147 to 35 is a clear demonstration that "hold" long term may not necessarily be the best way forward. While the basics are known today, we can expect one thing. And that is that the fundamentals will change. The oil is an excellent example. At the turn century, guess what was a key energy source? Blubber. It sounds incredible, but now as is the case. Oil was only used vaseline. Remember these things? Oil is now the main source of energy for the world. Can you imagine telling a whaling 100 years ago that things (Vaseline) that is rubbed on a baby's ass to keep it dry while cloth diapers are going to replace blubber and become "the" main component of energy and worlds that the world consumed 400 million gallons of oil a day at the turn of the next century? Would you have laughed at the docks.

What about gold? Can you imagine telling someone 100 years ago that Real money (gold), the material used since the dawn of civilization would be replaced by … … paper. No only be replaced by paper, but less than 2% of the world population even to own gold. Then put this bombshell on him / her. Despite the paper has replaced the gold and less than 2% of the population own gold, the gold price would rise from $ 20 per ounce in 1000 … … … .. increased fifty times. Surely they look at you like you're crazy. You could carry your story. You tell them that the U.S. government would confiscate all the gold of its citizens, paid $ 20 dollars for gold, and then once I had it all, which should be reassessed (night) $ 35. Then make it illegal in the next 40 years to own even gold. Can you imagine the look on their faces?

Since the dawn of civilization gold has been for real money. However, in most of our lives that has not been the case. real money (in general) does not lose its purchasing power. But paper money. We can even make the case that the price of any thing in the long run does not rise. What you're really seeing is the dollar value of paper down. This is what I mean.

In 1908, Henry Ford sold his cars Model T for $ 850 or 42.5 ounces of gold. The base price of all-wheel-drive 2010 Ford Taurus SHO with some (but not all) options is around $ 42,500 dollars or … … … … … … … … … 42.5 ounces!

Questions?

Now we know what is real money, do not you think its time you started to buy some? If you answer is a resounding yes, and never have, do yourself a favor. Obtain the services of someone who is familiar with trends of can have the confidence to buy. If not, do 100 years from now someone will say something like this to another person. "Did you know that 100 years ago given the choice, people used to keep their wealth in paper instead of gold even though he knew they were going to lose 90% of its purchasing power?

Think how much more sophisticated the new 2010 Ford Taurus SHO is comparatively speaking to the Model T. However, the price in terms of gold has not increased one iota in that time. If it does not own gold, do yourself a favor. Get some. If you do not have a counselor who is monitoring the market for you, get one. One who follows the trends prices.

Let's look at one more card.

1. And cities use natural gas for their fleets of buses and the technology to burn more clean increases every few years.

Natural gas commodity prices

In summary, the potential for the world to move away from paper is growing by leaps and bounds and the growing demand for energy is expanding rapidly. The advent of the ETF and other vehicles investment has made the participation of these markets for the average investor's easier than it has. Gold is in a major bull market, oil is the power of the world, and natural gas is a market that probably has a long-term fund has the potential to do what he did to raw blubber.

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About the Author

John Winston

John Winston is the technical commodity trader analyst. He provides detailed technical analysis for popular commodities like gold, silver, copper, oil, and natural gas. By focusing strictly on these commodity price movements trading become strictly technical and simple to trade. His free trading reports are available at his website: www.TechnicalCommodityTrader.com

Contact John at: Info [@] TechnicalCommodityTrader.com

Australian Gold Outlook May 2010