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From gold to rise?

So with the credit crisis and economic recession, is still with us, oil continues to fall (and cue Price confusing) what gold will do this year?

The inflation takes out the entire debt of the government and say that is good news for us, despite price deflation is more likely that a pickup in price inflation.

The force of the crisis is too strong and the economies of Australia, the USA, Japan and Europe are still feeling the pinch and will continue over the coming months.

Without But the combination of low interest rates, government bailouts and the massive public debt, makes the bullish gold bugs and feel dizzy.

Only way to spur inflation in the midst of the worst economic crisis for 80 years, is a bit mysterious.

Respected London-based researcher GFMS said last week in his first look at the prospects for gold in 2009, that gold prices can climb to a record first half of this year, because historically low interest rates could weaken the dollar and the government bailouts cause inflation.

Gold hit a record $ US1, 033.90 an ounce on March 17 and has since fallen to trade between $ US800 and US900 an ounce by ounce.

According to press reports acknowledge that the GFMS Gold may very well above $ US1, 000 an ounce mark in the second half of June.

GFMS provides in September update of gold than gold would rally to $ US950 an ounce by the end of 2008. That was $ US70 more than the actual year end price.

The group still believes the bull market gold could be extended, with a highest peak of what is expected sometime in the first half. We see a weak U.S. dollar push the metal (so far no sign that, while).

But the group also warned that deflation pressures, which should emerge more strongly in the second half of year could push gold prices to around $ US700 an ounce.

"You would think that recessionary conditions and the consequent reduction inflationary pressure could undermine "the demand, lowering prices to near $ 700 an ounce.

"This money-printing in a about to inaugurate a period of high inflation. Deflationary pressure could only be in evidence during a relatively short time.

"The rally is unlikely to be derailed by supply due to mine production relatively flat, subdued central bank sales, and unless prices range from $ 950, little changed for scrap, "GFMS said.
The group said that the massive fiscal commitments made by the U.S. government could alarm cause foreign investors and official inflows in the market for Treasury bonds weaken, undermining support for the dollar.

(The Treasury Market U.S. in particular seems to be a bomb ready to explode with yields at record lows, which does not seem sustainable)

Waiting for the stimulus and expense of Bank support in the U.S. and the UK to be announced this week and next to add more than $ US1.2 billion to the already bloated spending.

GFMS said in its report finds that the strong investor demand for the metal had been "masked" by strong sales of hedge funds that necessary cash to cover losses elsewhere, meet margin calls and payment of ransom. And if it was for sale, prices have recovered more than $ US1, 000 level.

While mine production expected to remain stable in the 1,170 tonnes in the first half, predicts that demand for investment for bars may rise 49% to 201 tonnes, while consumption of jewelers and other manufacturers probably would fall 4% to 1254 tons.

Demand for gold has been affected by the slowdown in jewelry and industrial sectors, while the demand for coins and investment in physical metal has been very strong for months. Many producers of specialist gold coins and other products have a long waiting list of customers who want to buy.

On the side supply GFMS said gold production in South Africa in 2008 fell the most in 107 years, pushing the country to third place in the league of world producers, behind China and the U.S..

The country's gold production fell by an estimated 14%, the biggest drop since 1901.

The Gold production in South Africa was a provisional 232 tonnes, 38 tonnes in 2007, due to limited power supply, an industry wide shortage qualifications and a review of security procedures in the mines.

China extended its lead as the largest gold producer in the world, with a production by 3% last year to 288 tonnes, while production in the U.S. decreased by 2% to 234 tonnes.

GFMS said the fall in southern Africa production contributed to a decline in global mine production which sank 3.6% to 2385 tonnes, the lowest since 1995.

The central bank sales dropped sharply in 2008, compared to 42% from 2007 to 279 tons, the lowest annual total since 1996.

GFMS said he expected central banks to sell 127 tonnes of gold in the first half of 2009, down 23% over the same period in 2008.

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About the Author

Australasian Investment Review (AIR) is a free daily news service covering global financial markets with a focus on Australia, New Zealand and Asia. Each day our team of experienced journalists presents you with a concise digest of expert opinions and analysis on trends and backgrounds that matter in these markets. Subscriptions are free at aireview.com.au

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